The Hundred.
What “long term” actually means.
“The Hundred” is a portfolio approach built to answer the question that makes investing feel risky: how long is long enough?
So what’s new?
Tell most people that a regular investment continued over the long term can give good returns, and they’ll shrug. Any investment held long enough has the potential to do well. Nothing new there.
We don’t disagree. But that advice leaves out the two things investors actually worry about: what exactly counts as long term, and what are the chances of ending up with a loss?
The Hundred, explained
Why we went looking
Think back to March 2020: markets falling sharply, panic everywhere. Most of us believe a falling market will eat up the gains we’ve built — and in the short term, it does. That doubt hangs over every investment in the stock market.
So we set out to answer it properly. What is long term, and what is the probability of negative returns? We went through every starting point in two decades of market data. The Hundred is what came out of it.
What 20 years of Sensex data showed
We took Sensex data from January 2001 to June 2021 and imagined an SIP starting in every single month. Whenever you entered the market, if you continued your SIP for 100 months, you ended up positive. Not most of the time. Every time, in that period.
Annualised return at the 100th month
146 Sensex SIPs, each run for 100 months, started every month from January 2001
Zero of 146 hundred-month SIPs ended with a negative return.
Start in January 2001 and continue for 100 months, to April 2009: by May 2009, your return was 21.56% a year — despite the 2008 crash.
Start in February 2013 and continue to May 2021: by June 2021, 13.47% a year.
12.20%
Average annual return at month 100
24.15%
Highest
3.14%
Lowest — still positive
See the data behind the study
| What we looked at | |
|---|---|
| Period | January 2001 to June 2021 |
| Months in the period | 246 |
| 100-month SIPs completed | 146 |
| Sensex, start of January 2001 | 3,972.12 |
| Sensex, end of June 2021 | 52,482.71 |
| First 100-month SIP completed | April 2009 |
It held for real funds, too
An index isn’t something you invest in directly, so we also checked real funds with 20-year track records, using rolling 100-month SIP returns over the same period. Only a handful of funds in each category go back that far; these are three of them.
| Fund | Below 0% | 0–5% | 6–10% | 11–20% | Above 20% | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABSL Flexi Cap Fund | 0 | 0 | 16 (11%) | 103 (70%) | 28 (19%) | 17.0% | 33.2% | 5.1% |
| UTI Nifty Index Fund | 0 | 2 (1%) | 47 (32%) | 82 (56%) | 6 (11%) | 12.3% | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Franklin India Prima Fund | 0 | 0 | 13 (9%) | 70 (48%) | 64 (44%) | 18.6% | 30.8% | 5.9% |
January 2001 to June 2021, 147 data points per fund. We are not recommending these funds, or funds with 20-year track records. The point is that, whether the index or actual funds, every 100-month SIP in this period delivered a positive return.
How The Hundred portfolio works
A hundred months is 8 years and 4 months. We choose the funds, stay with you for the full journey, and help you turn the result into a monthly income.
We choose funds for your risk appetite
The Hundred filters the most suitable schemes available, based on your risk appetite and goals. Investing according to your risk, time horizon and objective is non-negotiable.
We monitor it for 100 months
You invest through a monthly SIP, and we review and monitor the portfolio for the full 8 years and 4 months.
You stay invested to month 120
After the 100th month, the SIP stops but the money stays invested for another 20 months, until the end of year 10.
You withdraw a monthly amount of your choice
From month 120, we help you set up a Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP), so the corpus pays you a regular monthly amount.
Try it with your numbers
Set your SIP, returns and equity share, and choose how much you’d like to withdraw each month as a multiple of your SIP. The calculator shows what your hundred months could build, and how long the withdrawals could last.
Please read: this study is based on past market data. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns, and no one can predict future market movements. Its purpose is to show the benefit of investing for the long term, not to promise a result. Read all scheme-related documents carefully before investing.
Ready to start your hundred months?
We’ll help you choose the right funds for your risk appetite, and stay with you for the whole journey.
CurateMyMoney is an AMFI-registered mutual fund distributor (ARN-184811). Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme-related documents carefully.